St. Albans, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

724
FXUS61 KBTV 141411
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1011 AM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 943 AM EDT Sunday...

A Flood Watch has been issued for most of northern and central
Vermont, outside of Grand Isle County for heavy rainfall between
1 to 2 inches, locally up to 3 inches, through 8 AM tomorrow
morning. Heavy rain over repeated areas could lead to flash
flooding. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has brought
the rest of the region into a Slight Risk (level 2 out out 5)
for severe weather through this evening.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Strong to severe thunderstorms and localized flooding
possible today and tonight.

2. A return to more seasonal weather early next week with daily
chances for showers.

3. Another storm system is expected to bring widespread
rainfall to the region on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A Flood Watch has been issued for most of
northern and central Vermont, outside of Grand Isle County,
until 8 AM tomorrow morning for heavy rainfall amounts between 1
to 2 inches, possibly up to 3 inches, in areas that receive
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. We`ve got a bit
of a messy 24 hours ahead of us with multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms possible ahead of a strong cold front late
this afternoon into this evening. Currently, we have a bit of a
deformation axis setting up across the St. Lawrence Valley which
is allowing for a few showers with embedded rumbles of thunder
to track across the Valley. Minimal rainfall has been reported
thus far but the main concern is how the longwave pattern is
beginning to shift. Moisture will continue to advect eastward
throughout the day today with a little boost from the Great
Lakes to help bump PWATs up near 1.75 inches across northern New
York and 1.25 to 1.5 inches elsewhere. These plume of greatest
moisture is likely to be trapped under the developing
deformation axis which could lead to a longer period of
rainfall; some of which is expected to be very heavy at times.
Model soundings across New York show between 1000 J/kg of CAPE
(GFS) to 2000 J/kg of CAPE (NAM) this afternoon with an
increasing warm cloud depth layer. These soundings support very
heavy rainfall and with a synoptic cold front with strong
frontogenesis/convergence, it`s feasible we could see some
localized 2.5+ inch rainfall totals in some locations from
northern New York across northern Vermont (best chances near the
International border). Those with outdoor plans this afternoon,
and especially tonight, are advised to keep an eye on the
weather as we could be in store for some heavy rain and isolated
flash flooding.

In addition to the hydrological concerns, we`re also keeping an eye
on the severe potential this afternoon into the evening. The forcing
between the upper level trough and surface cold front are slightly
displaced but the cold front is expected to move across the region
right around peak heating. With temperatures in the mid to upper 80s
and dewpoints in the lower 60s, plenty of instability will be
present. We are looking at "inverted v" soundings in the low level
with model forecasted DCAPE in the 600-1000 J/kg range. This should
support some damaging wind gusts with even a few wet microbursts
possible in stronger storms this afternoon. Deep layer shear in the
50 to 60 knot range will help organize thunderstorms with a few
supercells possible. The main thinking is that the cold front would
quickly catch up to any supercells with the main storm mode being
multicellular/QLCS. Damaging winds will be the main concern for sure
this afternoon with a brief spin-up tornado unlikely but possible.
We will be hard pressed to see large hail greater than 1 inch in
diameter due to a high melting layer but we could still see smaller
hail within thunderstorms this afternoon. The main window for severe
storms will be between 4 PM and 10 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the passage of the cold front, we will be
under the influence of an upper level trough once again. A return to
more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s is
forecast through Wednesday with lows in the 50s and 60s. Broad
cyclonic flow could yield some isolated to scattered diurnal shower
chances through the first half of the upcoming week but no
significant rainfall is expected at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to be in very good agreement that
another potent storm system will track near the St. Lawrence Valley
on Thursday and bring widespread rainfall. There is enough
confidence in the guidance to include 80+ PoPs at this time. There
is the possibility for some heavy rainfall again on Thursday and we
have already begun coordinating with the Weather Prediction Center
about the potential for at least a marginal risk for flash flooding.
Some of the ensemble guidance is already hinting at 1-2 inches of
rain on Thursday so it`ll be something to watch closely, especially
depending on how much rainfall is received from the storms today and
tonight.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Showers are approaching from the west, but VFR
conditions are expected to continue through about 16-17z before
more widespread rainfall overspreads the area. MVFR
visibilities are expected as rain begins with ceilings lowering
to MVFR values a few hours behind the onset of rainfall. Some
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a strong cold front
moves across the region. A few PROB30s are noted where better
instability lies over KEFK/KBTV/KPBG/KSLK, with the greatest
chance for thunder between 18z-00z. Winds will increase from the
south this afternoon with some gusty winds up to 20 knots
expected in the Champlain Valley. Winds will likely become
erratic near thunderstorms this afternoon but should settle into
a southerly to southwesterly flow behind the thunderstorms and
ultimately veer to the west/northwest in the wake of the cold
front.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the broad and southern
waters of Lake Champlain through this midnight. South winds
ahead an approaching cold front will lead to increasing winds
on Lake Champlain enhancing gusts and wave conditions.
Thunderstorms will also be possible today with sudden increases
in gusts. Winds on the lake will increase to 10 to 20 knots
with gusts up 25 knots, becoming strongest between 1 and 8 PM.
Waves will be generally 1 to 2 ft. Gusts will weaken back to
around 10 knots between after sunset. Boaters today should stay
weather aware, and have a way to receive warning alerts.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Daily Precipitation may be possible today:

June 14:
KMSS: 0.63/2005
K1V4: 0.66/2005

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...Flood Watch through Monday morning for VTZ002>010-016>018.
NY...None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Danzig
DISCUSSION...Clay
AVIATION...Clay
MARINE...Danzig
CLIMATE...NWS BTV